Will the Orchard pool drop below 230,000 TAZ at block 4,542,048?

TESTNET / CLOSE 4,542,043 / RESOLVE 4,542,048

Bets close at block 4,542,043. The result is decided at block 4,542,048. Decided by chain data, with no human vote: the outcome follows whether the orchard pool holds less than 230000.00000000 ZEC when the market resolves.

Public odds

YES 56%44% NO

0.04 ZEC in the pool.

YES: 0.02 ZEC
NO: 0.02 ZEC

Anonymous feed

Amounts. Outcomes. Blocks. No sender identities.

0.01 ZECYESBlock 4,540,129

0.02 ZECNOBlock 4,540,125

S-05 / SETTLEMENT

Resolution & payout

POOL_THRESHOLD

No public resolution published.

No public payout plan published.

frosted-verify all 9f79dc0ac399580e979a7d026c5e69a5

Run this on your own node to recompute the plan. Signing progress for every market is on the payout status page.

On-chain proof

Every step of this market is a real testnet Zcash transaction. Open them in a public explorer to see that they exist and when they were mined. Shielded transactions hide amounts and people, so an explorer shows only that they happened.

Market announced (rules locked on-chain): be12c8a030bedcf209314d1d249c6544f08c20a3caaabae2c47a8f423090b302 View on explorer · block 4,540,116
Bets: Each bet is a shielded transaction in the block shown in the feed above. Bet transaction ids are not published, so bets cannot be linked to anyone.
Payouts: Not paid out yet.

For checkers

You do not need this to bet. It is the raw proof that the rules cannot change and that anyone can recompute the result.

Locked rules

POOL_THRESHOLD · 1% operator fee. Locked at announcement block 4540116. The rules_hash is a fingerprint of these rules: change one character and it changes.

{
  "pool": "orchard",
  "comparator": "lt",
  "threshold_zat": 23000000000000
}

rules_hash

7dc26db8ebe90bef0710e34cf51b6eacf925c5f35c7d349c5122d1917ef3f745

Full market definition

{
  "version": 1,
  "params_version": 1,
  "network": "testnet",
  "market_id": "9f79dc0ac399580e979a7d026c5e69a5",
  "question": "Will the Orchard pool drop below 230,000 TAZ at block 4,542,048?",
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "outcome_index": 0,
      "label": "YES",
      "address": "utest1uufy6u9qkg4nfug2gu24htq0z7hmu2amha8xc5dsha4zdt8e9ql2m8l3hz7s0s62eatskxg56ltgxljyrn88cqzqcjgag5xzecs0jhvt"
    },
    {
      "outcome_index": 1,
      "label": "NO",
      "address": "utest1tmep34ar6eczg98ya6p4yx83dt9ev62kqpa6qcyrkxpnresk64g2xtpygy547nx62z9t2u90hmkqrvh5qh2pxsfvhstd38pkmvzkrfsd"
    }
  ],
  "resolution_type": "POOL_THRESHOLD",
  "resolution_params": {
    "pool": "orchard",
    "comparator": "lt",
    "threshold_zat": 23000000000000
  },
  "birthday_height": 4540043,
  "close_height": 4542043,
  "resolve_height": 4542048,
  "fee_bps": 100,
  "min_bet_zat": 1000000,
  "refund_fee_zat": 5000,
  "min_confirmations": 3,
  "sweep_threshold_zat": 5000,
  "announce_timeout_blocks": 100,
  "uivk": "uivktest1jkjrqcz64s53ptdw25cr90z6tvrrvaxpg4ky8c90wd9qjrxsmc830y57dzysd2q3lt5gyasn49cd5r6x25ehyxc54kvku00cmghl6xljynfj8yv6radvee9j8dxtc9tjp6lqpey7es",
  "envelope_pk": "XRUYMi3NneAxHilDhIDvQb58WCrKqVCjNFDxP6mliQ0",
  "treasury_address": "utest1ulggulg064gpnnvpz4hg873xfe2xx2yxnr5x59kyt2r8tkjjqc9lx97v8fde6pwwq3q9g0s88c5zzz7msflr3cc6ndfqsfel9k0ud6l3d4tvfvvpnfsjgrnv8kgwu6lat6d8qe7ntq4ugm5clxsp8439yvdr2gc7t7v7e2ulj95gy47qrxdjwsswtguc8yfa5nvd8junhh6yqfrwecv"
}

Viewing key

The public viewing key reveals escrow notes. It does not reveal their senders.

uivktest1jkjrqcz64s53ptdw25cr90z6tvrrvaxpg4ky8c90wd9qjrxsmc830y57dzysd2q3lt5gyasn49cd5r6x25ehyxc54kvku00cmghl6xljynfj8yv6radvee9j8dxtc9tjp6lqpey7es

Verify this market yourself